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Beating a falling index: What Sep’24 to Mar’26 revealed about MFs and PMSs

Vishnu Venugopal

The Nifty 50 fell from 25,810.85 to 22,331.40 between 30 September 2024 and 31 March 2026 — a decline of −13.48% over 18 months. We pulled together how Indian equity mutual funds and PMSs performed over the same stretch, measured point-to-point on NAV.

How the comparison was set up

PMSs publish NAV monthly, typically on the last business day, while MFs publish daily. To compare like with like, both universes were measured at month-end. The MF cohort is restricted to Direct Plans only, since Regular Plans bake in distributor commissions that vary across schemes — Direct Plan removes that noise and isolates the manager’s call.

The PMS universe was filtered to current AUM of ₹300 crore or more. The PMS field has a long tail of strategies running well below ₹100 Cr, and including them inflates dispersion at both ends and skews averages. The ≥ ₹300 Cr cutoff leaves 165 PMSs.

One housekeeping note: 31 March 2026 was an equity market holiday. The Nifty end-value uses the 30 March 2026 close. MF and PMS NAVs dated 31 March 2026 reflect the same underlying market values, since equities did not trade.

How the three cohorts fared

The MF universe is shown two ways: the broad cohort of all Direct Plan equity funds, and the active diversified subset that excludes Sector, Thematic, and Index Funds. PMSs are shown as one cohort filtered to ≥ ₹300 Cr current AUM.

Cohort comparison
Universe Total Beat NIFTY % Beat Avg Return Best Worst
All Equity MFs 608 314 51.6% −14.05% +20.95% −41.27%
Active diversified MFs (ex Sector + Thematic + Index) 283 161 56.9% −13.61% +0.48% −29.14%
PMSs ≥ ₹300 Cr 165 8 4.8% −24.97% +48.32% −60.31%

In the active diversified MF cohort, 56.9% of funds beat the Nifty. In the PMS ≥ ₹300 Cr cohort, 4.8% did — eight strategies out of 165. The active diversified MF cohort averaged −13.61% against the index’s −13.48%. The PMS ≥ ₹300 Cr cohort averaged −24.97%, more than 11 percentage points below.

Outliers worth flagging among Mutual Funds

The +20.95% best return in the all-equity MF row belongs to Franklin Asian Equity Fund, a Thematic-classified fund that invests in Asian equities outside India. It isn’t running an Indian equity book at all — the return reflects a different opportunity set entirely. Once thematic funds are excluded, this number drops out of the picture.

The next standout — the +8.52% best return that shows up before Index Funds are excluded — comes from the Motilal Oswal Nifty India Defence Index Fund, with the Aditya Birla Sun Life version of the same index at +8.10%. These are classified as Index Funds in the AMFI taxonomy, but the Nifty India Defence Index is itself a sectoral index. So the underlying exposure is a concentrated bet on a single sector, not diversified equity.

When both these layers are stripped away — leaving only diversified active equity — the best return falls to +0.48%, from DSP Value Fund. SBI Focused Fund (−1.51%) and Parag Parikh Flexi Cap (−3.79%) round out the top three. None of the 283 active diversified MFs crossed +1% over the 18 months.

The top 20 PMSs (≥ ₹300 Cr)

Top 20 PMSs by return
# PMS Strategy Return AUM (₹Cr)
1 360 ONE Asset Mgmt 360 ONE Large Value Strategy +48.32% 812
2 Aequitas Investment Aequitas India Opportunities +39.45% 3,788
3 Sahasrar Capital Sahasrar Concentrated Growth −1.52% 1,102
4 InCred Asset Mgmt InCred Healthcare Portfolio −5.53% 498
5 ValueQuest Investment ValueQuest Vision −8.53% 770
6 2Point2 Capital 2Point2 Long Term Value Fund −8.69% 1,700
7 Unique Asset Mgmt Unique Focused Fund −10.73% 949
8 Aditya Birla Sun Life Select Sector Portfolio −12.94% 455
NIFTY 50 Index −13.48%
9 Buoyant Capital Buoyant Opportunities −14.01% 8,689
10 Himalaya Investment EverFlow India Opportunities −14.40% 316
11 Abakkus Asset Mgr Abakkus Select Opp Strategy 2 −14.42% 367
12 Sundaram Alternate S.E.L.F −14.78% 752
13 Sundaram Alternate SISOP −15.29% 1,322
14 Oaklane Capital Oaklane Bespoke Equity −15.56% 4,204
15 Invesco India Invesco India R.I.S.E −15.81% 316
16 Carnelian Asset Carnelian Capital Compounder −16.26% 1,420
17 Emkay Investment EIML Capital −16.33% 427
18 Stallion Asset Stallion Asset Core Fund −17.82% 5,819
19 ICICI Securities Sterling Aggressive Portfolio −18.30% 321
20 DMZ Partners DMZ Partners Inheritors Strategy −19.30% 543

Two PMSs delivered positive returns over the 18 months: 360 ONE Large Value Strategy (+48.32%) and Aequitas India Opportunities (+39.45%). The third-placed PMS finished at −1.52%; from there onwards, every return is negative. Eight of the top 20 finished above the Nifty’s −13.48%; twelve finished below.

The rally that came before

The 18 months covered above looked very different from what came just before it. From end-March 2023 to NIFTY’s September 2024 peak, the index rose roughly 49% — climbing from around 17,360 to a closing high of 26,216 on 26 September 2024. That’s an 18-month rally.

We ran the same comparison on the same three universes for that period — and the picture was almost the inverse.

Rally vs Drawdown comparison
Universe Rally (Mar’23 → Sep’24) Drawdown (Sep’24 → Mar’26)
All Equity MFs 440 of 457 = 96.3% 314 of 608 = 51.6%
Active diversified MFs 253 of 254 = 99.6% 161 of 283 = 56.9%
PMSs ≥ ₹300 Cr 138 of 144 = 95.8% 8 of 165 = 4.8%

* The PMS cohort is filtered on “current AUM ≥ ₹300 Cr” (as of 31 March 2026), the same filter used elsewhere in the article. Filtering on size at the start of the rally would shrink the cohort further; the current-size filter aligns with how an investor today would think about choosing among large PMSs. Slight variation in MF totals (457 vs 608) reflects funds which were launched in the subsequent period of time.

In the rally, almost every active manager beat NIFTY — 99.6% of active diversified MFs and 95.8% of large PMSs. In the 18-month drawdown that immediately followed, those numbers fell to 56.9% and 4.8%.

A question to leave with

Headline CAGR numbers, computed at any single point, blend regimes that may have looked very different from one another. Of the same cohort of large PMSs, 96% beat the Nifty in the 18-month rally that preceded the September 2024 peak; just 5% beat it in the 18-month drawdown that immediately followed. For active diversified MFs, the proportion fell from 99.6% to 57% across those same two regimes.

When choosing between MFs and PMSs — and between styles within each — how much weight should a long-period CAGR really carry on its own, given how differently active management performs across regimes? And what else needs to be thought through, beyond the headline number itself?

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